Archive

Archive for the ‘Demography’ Category

5 population stories you don’t usually hear…

November 25th, 2013 Comments off

by Marcus Roberts

One of our main arguments over the last few years on this blog has been that the overpopulation disaster story that is peddled in the media and inhabits the collective societal consciousness is a bit out of date. Instead, we have been highlighting the fact that many countries throughout the world are suffering the opposite problem: a sustained drop in births leading to a contracting, ageing population.  These countries must either prop up by their working age populations through widespread immigration (leading to serious societal issues relating to cultural integration and conflict) or rethink their social security schemes that essentially rely on a continually growing population base (much like Ponzi schemes).   Read more…

We need to plan now for the ageing

October 4th, 2013 Comments off

by Shannon Roberts

For the first time in history, by the year 2050 people over 60 will outnumber children under the age of 15.  Is the world ready for this massive demographic change?  A recently released United Nations report suggests not.

The global study ranks the social and economic well-being of the elderly in 91 countries and is the first time such a study has been undertaken.  Read more…

Categories: Demography Tags: ,

In the year 2100…

October 1st, 2013 Comments off

by Marcus Roberts

Having stated last week that there is no population explosion problem, it might be useful to look at the various predictions that are being made about the world’s population.  There is a large variation between what the UN is predicting to be the world’s population in 2100 and what it was predicting only a few years ago.   In 2008, the UN set a global population peak at 2070 and then a falling population after that. It predicted that in 2100 the population of the world would be a touch over 9 billion and falling.  Then in 2010 the UN released new predictions, the population was not going to peak, but was going to be at around 10 billion in 2100.  Then in 2012, the UN revised its figures again, stating that the population of the world was going to be even higher, at 10.8 billion at 2100.  This variation was due to high fertility rates in Africa and Latin America: Read more…

Overpopulation fears betray an ignorance of human history

September 17th, 2013 Comments off

by Marcus Roberts

Wow, the New York Times really has come over to the dark side. Last week I reported on an article from the grey lady about the German efforts to arrest its population decline that shows that the problem for so many countries isn’t a population explosion, but a population implosion (albeit in slow motion).  Now, an op-ed from that same newspaper from Erle C Ellis (Associate Professor of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland) has made the claim that overpopulation in relation to the environment is a myth! That must have caused some raised eyebrows in NYTimes heartland (if they weren’t still raised from seeing Vladimir Putin in their paper a few days ago!) Read more…

USA is slowly having more children

September 13th, 2013 Comments off

by Marcus Roberts

According to USA Today, there are some signs of increasing confidence in America. That is because the US Fertility Forecast report released by Demographic Intelligence has shown an upward tick. It has moved from a 25 year low of 1.89 children per woman to an almost 25 year low of 1.90 children per women! Obviously, the confidence is only increasing slowly… Read more…

Ukraine suffering population decline

July 25th, 2013 Comments off

by Marcus Roberts

Although the world might be overrun with people by 2050 (according to certain prophets, we’re all doomed) one place you might like to consider moving to is Ukraine. When everyone else is living cheek-by-jowl with their neighbours, bewailing the lack of living space, Ukraine may well be looking pretty attractive in 37 years time.  That’s because, like so many other countries in Europe, Ukraine’s population is going to decline between now and 2050.  Currently, the population is around 45.5million people, but the UN has forecast that this will drop to 33 million people by 2050 (a decline of more than a quarter). Demographers in the Ukraine have disputed this figure however, claiming that the decline will be more modest – to 36 million people. Read more…

“The Global Spread of Fertility Decline”

July 17th, 2013 Comments off

by Marcus Roberts

The Yale Global Online website recently published a piece by Michael S Teitelbaum and Jay c, the authors of a new book: The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty.  Their article is an excellent overview of the large demographic trends that we have mentioned a few (just a few…) times before on this blog, namely: Read more…

Fertility decreases for third year in a row in Canada

July 15th, 2013 Comments off

by Shannon Roberts

New figures released by Statistics Canada show that fertility there has decreased for the third year in a row.  It hasn’t been above the replacement level of 2.1 children since 1971, and was just 1.61 children per women in 2011.  The National Post reports Derek Miedema, a researcher with the Institute of Marriage and Family Canada, as commenting: Read more…

Another Economist says more Babies are Needed

July 3rd, 2013 Comments off

by Shannon Roberts

Today I point you to this eloquently written review in the The Telegraph of Stephen D King’s recently published book “When the Money Runs Out” by Charles Moore.

The book gives a gloomy economic forecast.  Politicians always appear certain that recovery from our current long recession is just around the corner.  Yet King, who is group chief economist and global head of economics and asset allocation at HSBC, asserts that the Baby Boomers’ assumption that the world’s economy will always bounce back may be a false one with little basis.  This is largely due to the demographic data that they have themselves have created, and King’s basic premise is that we need more babies to sustain our economies. Read more…

“Astonishing” demographic change in Latin America

June 25th, 2013 Comments off

by Shannon Roberts

New published demographic research by Albert Esteve at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, reveals Latin American society is changing at an unprecedented rate.   For generations people have been focused on early marriage, family and child-rearing, but now co-habitation rather than marriage is becoming a norm and having children is being postponed.  It is the same picture we already see in many other countries.  However, Sao Paulo of the Economist observes that the change is happening “astonishingly quickly” in Latin America.  It took “rich” countries 50 years, with changes occurring in sequence, while in Latin America the changes have happened in half the time and all at once, resulting in faster, less predictable social change.  Read more…