Ruth Institute Blog

So there’s a new study out entitled Findings from a Decade of Polling on Ballot Measures Regarding the Legal Status of Same-Sex Couples. The two main questions focused on in the study are: What effect did the campaign have on the outcome of the election? and How predictable was the outcome of the election? To answer these questions they studied polls taken before and during various same-sex marriage and domestic partnership ballot initiative campaigns.

One conclusion of the study is that the actual vote on election day against same-sex ‘marriage’ is typically about seven percentage points higher than polling would have indicated. (That is definitely a significant difference!) They were not able to determine exactly why that is the case, but the study did debunk two popular theories: People were not answering poll questions dishonestly because they were afraid of appearing to be too politically incorrect, nor were voters confused about what a Yes or a No vote meant.

When it comes to the effect of the campaign on the outcome of the election, the study suggests that both sides consistently fought each other to a standstill. Polls taken at the end of the campaigns were remarkably close to what the polls showed before campaigning even began. Some are deducing from this that what you have going into such an election is what you’ll end up with for the results regardless of what you put into the campaign. But I think we should be very wary of that conclusion lest we become complacent.

Nowhere in the study could I find any data at all about how much was spent by each side on the campaign or anything about who was able to mobilize the most volunteers to canvass during the campaign and get out the vote for their side on election day. (If the Prop 8 campaign was very typical, then both sides were probably most often about evenly matched in terms of resources.) Obviously starting off in the lead would be an advantage, but if one side was able to get their message out to the voters during the campaign and the other did not, how could that not have a significant effect on the results of the election? (You are very unlikely to win a gunfight if you show up with a knife…)

On the other hand, laying the groundwork between elections would seem to be key to the outcome. Those who are attempting to undermine marriage are definitely networked. (How do you think they got this far?) We need to be organized to have the strongest affect on our culture as well. That is what Ruth Institute is all about, isn’t it? You can be certain there will always be another battle at the ballot box over same-sex ‘marriage’ for the foreseeable future. These are indeed the times to fight the good fight. And IMHO Dr J is just the general we need to lead us.